Introduction

Results are going to start coming in for this election basically as soon as I publish this, so now is the appropriate time to give some idea about how I think the amendments are going to go, rather than just my personal opinion on them.

Amendment 1

In 2016 this measure passed with 80% of the vote. In 2006 it passed with 70%. 80% would be a good guess under different circumstances, but the presence of Amendment 5 on this ballot has changed things a bit. I cannot give a concrete reason for this, but a lot of people who have supported Amendment 5 have opposed Amendment 1. Thus, I think we are going to trend down a bit, but still pass.

Prediction: 75% Yes - 25% No

Amendment 2

This is going to be a weird one. While I think a lot of liberal-minded people have come around to this one, there seemed to have been a lot of initial resistance to voting 'Yes' on this because of the idea of having Missouri-wide rulings over a local government. However, Republicans probably supported this measure for that reason. If the vast majority of Republicans are a 'Yes' and half of Democrats are now a 'Yes' as well, I think this will pass with fairly good margins.

Prediction: 70% Yes - 30% No

Amendment 4

This is going to be the closest ones. Many Republicans support this one because it keeps the Missouri legislature in complete control over the amendment process. However, Democrats are strong 'No's for essentially the same reason. I think enough Republicans will cross into 'No' territory to make this amendment a fail.

Prediction: 45% Yes - 55% No

Amendment 5